Sending voice over the internet is a bit tricky since what you care about is latency (how long from the time a sound is made to when the other person hears it) rather than throughput (how much data you can send over an extended period of time). The internet is largely designed for throughput so people go off and do all sorts of fancy things to improve latency for VOIP (voice over internet protocol).
So if the computer could see a little into the future (like the elevators in hitchhikers guide to the galaxy, or Daniel in the Avatar episode of stargate), over the course of the conversation it would be sending the same amount of data in the same time, but it could deal with short delays. Of course the universe has decided to be causal which ruins so many time travel stories. But the world is increasingly pointing out that human speech really is quite predictable. Type into an iphone and it becomes clear that after just a few letters it often knows what you are going to say. Even more disturbing is the google search box in safari and firefox that will complete what you thought was such a unique search phrase.
So VOIP could see into the future. Obviously it would sometimes be wrong and often would just have a list of possibilities, but it could send across a list of several possibilities (make use of the excess throughput) and then once it knows for sure, just send a short message saying which one it turned out to be. And in the cases where it was wrong then it just sends the voice data as usual. (Has some similarity to pipelining in processors.) You might point out that it doesn't just need to know what word to send, but needs to actually send the sound of your voice, but that just means it has to train over the course of several conversations.
If I was Scott Adams 100 people would now tell me about how this is already being done and another 100 would tell me why it is a stupid idea. Being me, the comment box will sit empty while my friends question if they can delete this RSS feed.
Tuesday, October 27, 2009
Monday, October 26, 2009
Lithium
Today foreignpolicy.com had a slide show about where lithium comes from. It's not really a sad story since Bolivia is actually trying to make sure it gets some money out of the deal as opposed to what has happened with previous natural resources.
But something about it really struck me. I guess it is just that lithium batteries is this growing high tech area so it seems so odd to know that it comes from people digging evaporation ponds and moving around old plastic tubs by hand. I imagine that a lot of what we take for granted comes from similar sources. But the change from an image of middle class people sitting in front of computers in cubicles or taking measurements in electronics labs to the woman holding a plastic tub was a bit jarring this morning.
Oh well, I'm sure in a day or two I'll have reverted back to my previous set of mental images.
But something about it really struck me. I guess it is just that lithium batteries is this growing high tech area so it seems so odd to know that it comes from people digging evaporation ponds and moving around old plastic tubs by hand. I imagine that a lot of what we take for granted comes from similar sources. But the change from an image of middle class people sitting in front of computers in cubicles or taking measurements in electronics labs to the woman holding a plastic tub was a bit jarring this morning.
Oh well, I'm sure in a day or two I'll have reverted back to my previous set of mental images.
Saturday, October 24, 2009
A Sad Realization
As I've gone from a kid who is good with computers to MIT student to MIT grad working in electronics, I've kind of felt like eventually I should hit a point where tech support people treat me like slightly less of an idiot.
My current job is designing part of commercial WiFi chips. A few days ago I was calling AT&T because I occasionally lose internet access for short periods. The tech support person decided it was a WiFi problem. I tried to explain that it doesn't make sense since it is not that I get an error from the browser but an error page sent by the router which is delivered over WiFi. That got me nowhere. (No, I didn't mention what I do for work, I didn't want to be that guy).
The individual incident is a pretty mild tale of dealing with tech support (it is not like I was trying to explain the difference between 1 cent and 0.01 cents). But it has forced me to realize that I will never be qualified enough to convince a tech support person to trust me over where their script has led them.
My current job is designing part of commercial WiFi chips. A few days ago I was calling AT&T because I occasionally lose internet access for short periods. The tech support person decided it was a WiFi problem. I tried to explain that it doesn't make sense since it is not that I get an error from the browser but an error page sent by the router which is delivered over WiFi. That got me nowhere. (No, I didn't mention what I do for work, I didn't want to be that guy).
The individual incident is a pretty mild tale of dealing with tech support (it is not like I was trying to explain the difference between 1 cent and 0.01 cents). But it has forced me to realize that I will never be qualified enough to convince a tech support person to trust me over where their script has led them.
Cornel West
Does Cornel West have graduate students? Is his office the collection of coolest people in the world or is it just a typically group of divinity and African American studies graduate students? In group meetings does every statement need to be phrased as prose? Instead of accompanying him on trips to conferences did they go to the set of The Matrix with him? Are any of his graduate students conservatives?
Health Insurance
While I have some reasonably strong opinions about health care reform, I'm kind of bored of the whole thing so this post isn't about pushing my opinion.
As I've been listening to the debates about health insurance one aspect strikes me as odd. Part of health insurance really is insurance. You pay a regular set amount and in exchange the company will pay on the unlikely chance that you have a problem that costs a large amount of money. The insurance company has low risk because they pool a large number of uncorrelated risks and you pay them more than your expected costs because they take on your risk.
But there is another aspect to health insurance. In addition to paying for unexpected events they also pay for regular check ups and other expected expenses. It's like if your car insurance paid for oil changes. Some of those expected expenses like regular check ups aren't even so expensive that you need insurance against them. There are other events that may not be 100% expected, but are sufficiently likely you don't need to average with other people. Such as going to the doctor for a cold or flu or other minor issues. It will vary some year to year, but the variation is probably small enough you don't really need to insure against it. Maybe the insurance would be if the number of visits were to exceed some large number.
There's also pre-existing conditions and prescriptions. If someone has been prescribed a medicine they're going to take for the rest of their life then the next year when they renew their insurance, they're not really insuring against needing the prescription. They know they're going to need it, it is not about paying to share their risk with others.
I'm absolutely not saying that these items that aren't really insurance should not be covered. I'm just saying that it seems like what we buy is more like a monthly subscription fee rather than insurance. It may just be a change in phrasing, but it could help reshape how the problem is viewed. Such as if you consider them insurance companies then it is kind of weird for them to insure against a condition someone already has. But if you consider it paying a monthly subscription fee, then as long as the person (or their employer or the government or...) is paying for their plan then they should get treatment. And I think it is easier to make the argument that everyone should be allowed to pay for health care through a monthly subscription fee regardless of existing conditions. It could also be a way of by-passing insurance companies by allowing medical groups to directly offer these plans.
As I've been listening to the debates about health insurance one aspect strikes me as odd. Part of health insurance really is insurance. You pay a regular set amount and in exchange the company will pay on the unlikely chance that you have a problem that costs a large amount of money. The insurance company has low risk because they pool a large number of uncorrelated risks and you pay them more than your expected costs because they take on your risk.
But there is another aspect to health insurance. In addition to paying for unexpected events they also pay for regular check ups and other expected expenses. It's like if your car insurance paid for oil changes. Some of those expected expenses like regular check ups aren't even so expensive that you need insurance against them. There are other events that may not be 100% expected, but are sufficiently likely you don't need to average with other people. Such as going to the doctor for a cold or flu or other minor issues. It will vary some year to year, but the variation is probably small enough you don't really need to insure against it. Maybe the insurance would be if the number of visits were to exceed some large number.
There's also pre-existing conditions and prescriptions. If someone has been prescribed a medicine they're going to take for the rest of their life then the next year when they renew their insurance, they're not really insuring against needing the prescription. They know they're going to need it, it is not about paying to share their risk with others.
I'm absolutely not saying that these items that aren't really insurance should not be covered. I'm just saying that it seems like what we buy is more like a monthly subscription fee rather than insurance. It may just be a change in phrasing, but it could help reshape how the problem is viewed. Such as if you consider them insurance companies then it is kind of weird for them to insure against a condition someone already has. But if you consider it paying a monthly subscription fee, then as long as the person (or their employer or the government or...) is paying for their plan then they should get treatment. And I think it is easier to make the argument that everyone should be allowed to pay for health care through a monthly subscription fee regardless of existing conditions. It could also be a way of by-passing insurance companies by allowing medical groups to directly offer these plans.
Thursday, October 15, 2009
Stargate
A while ago I was asking about scifi with multiple governments. Martian Time-Slip had elements of what I was thinking of, but that was just part of the background.
But there's one scifi story that seems to exactly fit what I was talking about, well except now it is syfy, but I won't hold that against it. And the winner is: Stargate SG-1. While the stargate program is really run by the US government at various points they cover interactions between earth governments, alien governments, different branches of the us government and combinations of each.
I'm sure that everyone is excited that the search no one but me cares about has ended! And yes I did just link to my own blog twice in a single post.
But there's one scifi story that seems to exactly fit what I was talking about, well except now it is syfy, but I won't hold that against it. And the winner is: Stargate SG-1. While the stargate program is really run by the US government at various points they cover interactions between earth governments, alien governments, different branches of the us government and combinations of each.
I'm sure that everyone is excited that the search no one but me cares about has ended! And yes I did just link to my own blog twice in a single post.
Sunday, October 11, 2009
Dollhouse
At some point early in season 1 I came up with a metaphor for dollhouse and in celebration of the start of season 2 I'll share it with all of you (aren't you lucky... or something).
The actives are people who normally are completely blank, live in a really nice place where people take care of them. They spend their downtime exercising and caring for their looks. Many of their assignments involve sex and/or violence. -Actors and actresses.
Tofer is the one who designs personalities for the actives (and he's the funny one). He likes his job for when he gets to do good, but often his boss has him do work he isn't proud of. -Joss Whedon.
Adelle is the boss telling Tofer what to do and picks assignments based on what will make money. She takes better care of the active that she slept with. -Network executive. (Hm, I used to like Adelle, but now I'm mad at her for canceling firefly.)
Handlers look after actives. They go on assignments to watch over them and make sure everything is going ok for them. -Agents/managers.
Paul Ballard is tortured by always making the correct moral choice. -Helo.
Dr Saunders is a doctor. -Doctors (ok, I don't have one for her, especially now that we know more about her)
If I wanted to stretch this way too far I could stick in something about Echo's awareness being related to Eliza becoming a producer in addition to actress.
The actives are people who normally are completely blank, live in a really nice place where people take care of them. They spend their downtime exercising and caring for their looks. Many of their assignments involve sex and/or violence. -Actors and actresses.
Tofer is the one who designs personalities for the actives (and he's the funny one). He likes his job for when he gets to do good, but often his boss has him do work he isn't proud of. -Joss Whedon.
Adelle is the boss telling Tofer what to do and picks assignments based on what will make money. She takes better care of the active that she slept with. -Network executive. (Hm, I used to like Adelle, but now I'm mad at her for canceling firefly.)
Handlers look after actives. They go on assignments to watch over them and make sure everything is going ok for them. -Agents/managers.
Paul Ballard is tortured by always making the correct moral choice. -Helo.
Dr Saunders is a doctor. -Doctors (ok, I don't have one for her, especially now that we know more about her)
If I wanted to stretch this way too far I could stick in something about Echo's awareness being related to Eliza becoming a producer in addition to actress.
Traffic
Just before heading off to Boston I finished up Traffic, Why We Drive The Way We Do. It's strange because I normally remember why I pick out books to read, but I can't remember why I picked this one. The author is a writer for slate so that could have had something to do with it.
In my own words I would say the main point of the book is - you suck at driving and you suck so bad you don't even realize how bad you suck. The book actually covers a number of topic related to driving. Some of it is about the psychology of how drivers interact with each other and with pedestrians, traffic planning, safe driving, estimating risk, local driving habits...
On the one hand I thought the book is interesting because it does explain a lot about driving and traffic, which considering I spend a decent amount of time in a car it is cool to know. On the other hand most of it is just telling you what the problem is, not what you can actually do about it. And on the weird mutant third hand, it is a book about traffic and driving so it can only be so exciting.
A few interesting things I picked up from it:
-Dialing a cell phone seems way more dangerous than talking on a cell phone. And for a set time it is more dangerous. In fact talking on a cell phone almost imperceptibly increases the second to second risk while driving. But when you integrate the increased risk of talking on the phone over a half hour conversation it adds up to be significant and far more than the moment it takes to dial.
-One of the best ways to be safer on the road is to have a passenger (except if you're a teenage boy and the passengers are teenage boys). Both because you'll drive safer for the other person and because it is the rare time when you actually have feedback about your driving and a second set of eyes. The you suck so bad at driving you don't even know it has a lot to do with the fact you almost never get feedback about your driving.
-The book talks about numerous safety measures and traffic designs tried by traffic engineers and they all seem to come down to two things, the main one is getting people to slow down and pay attention. One village in Denmark (or one of those northern european countries) has a city with zero traffic signs. They never have accidents because they make the roads seem dangerous and integrated with pedestrians (narrow roads near pedestrians and lots of round abouts) so people slow down and pay attention. Actually the idea that what seems dangerous is actually often safer because it gets the drivers to slow down and pay attention is a common theme in the book.
-There were some interesting descriptions of how traffic jams travel as waves which is why when you see a slow down it seems to be at a completely random spot and time.
-He also discusses issues with traffic reduction schemes. One interesting part was about people often wish they'd just open another lane on a busy road. But adding extra lanes almost never helps because more people will use that road (you might think that would clear up other roads, but a lot of it is added traffic that wouldn't exist otherwise). He talked about evidence that it is only a matter of a day or two before people will re-route to use the added space.
While the book is really about driving it does have some interesting insight into other topics like psychology and risk assessment.
One odd thing about the book is it is 402 pages long. But if you don't count the acknowledgments and footnotes it is 286 pages. So it is much shorter than it first appears.
In my own words I would say the main point of the book is - you suck at driving and you suck so bad you don't even realize how bad you suck. The book actually covers a number of topic related to driving. Some of it is about the psychology of how drivers interact with each other and with pedestrians, traffic planning, safe driving, estimating risk, local driving habits...
On the one hand I thought the book is interesting because it does explain a lot about driving and traffic, which considering I spend a decent amount of time in a car it is cool to know. On the other hand most of it is just telling you what the problem is, not what you can actually do about it. And on the weird mutant third hand, it is a book about traffic and driving so it can only be so exciting.
A few interesting things I picked up from it:
-Dialing a cell phone seems way more dangerous than talking on a cell phone. And for a set time it is more dangerous. In fact talking on a cell phone almost imperceptibly increases the second to second risk while driving. But when you integrate the increased risk of talking on the phone over a half hour conversation it adds up to be significant and far more than the moment it takes to dial.
-One of the best ways to be safer on the road is to have a passenger (except if you're a teenage boy and the passengers are teenage boys). Both because you'll drive safer for the other person and because it is the rare time when you actually have feedback about your driving and a second set of eyes. The you suck so bad at driving you don't even know it has a lot to do with the fact you almost never get feedback about your driving.
-The book talks about numerous safety measures and traffic designs tried by traffic engineers and they all seem to come down to two things, the main one is getting people to slow down and pay attention. One village in Denmark (or one of those northern european countries) has a city with zero traffic signs. They never have accidents because they make the roads seem dangerous and integrated with pedestrians (narrow roads near pedestrians and lots of round abouts) so people slow down and pay attention. Actually the idea that what seems dangerous is actually often safer because it gets the drivers to slow down and pay attention is a common theme in the book.
-There were some interesting descriptions of how traffic jams travel as waves which is why when you see a slow down it seems to be at a completely random spot and time.
-He also discusses issues with traffic reduction schemes. One interesting part was about people often wish they'd just open another lane on a busy road. But adding extra lanes almost never helps because more people will use that road (you might think that would clear up other roads, but a lot of it is added traffic that wouldn't exist otherwise). He talked about evidence that it is only a matter of a day or two before people will re-route to use the added space.
While the book is really about driving it does have some interesting insight into other topics like psychology and risk assessment.
One odd thing about the book is it is 402 pages long. But if you don't count the acknowledgments and footnotes it is 286 pages. So it is much shorter than it first appears.
Wedding Weekend
Last Tuesday night I headed off to Boston. Thanks to Jeremy and Emily for the ride to the airport. Wednesday was pretty low key, but I got to see Mike, Laura, Max and Alex for the first time in quite a while.
While I was in Boston I stayed at Alice's place (thanks Max and Alice). Short tangent: I was reading this daily beast article where they rank the smartest cities in America. Boston came in number 3 and one of the comments about the city is "When you go into somebody’s office or you go into their home, one of the things you case out is their bookshelf" and the room I stayed in contains a bookshelf I am declaring the winner.
Thursday I was still adjusting to the time zone and got up rather late. After some lunch at the miracle of science and an unfruitful search for a glass for Mike to step on we headed out for the bachelor party. First stop was india quality. I'm so glad that in college we picked a restaurant that's actually really good so we can now do the combo of nostalgia and good food (nud pob and burrito max were good and all, but even if one of those was the Sunday post clean up place I couldn't see either being the aepi alumni meet up spot). (Yes I just explained that I'm glad that we liked a place I like).
After IQ we headed to Fenway where we watched the Red Sox beat the Indians. Well really we watched the backs of the Sox beat the backs of the Indians, but at least we were close to the field. Then off to Jillian's for some pool playing.
Friday after I took a little nostalgia walk through MIT while reading the Tech, Jeremy, Emily and I made our way down to the cape (and found a good glass for stepping on). We hung out at Laura's place and did the rehearsal. Afterwards we headed to a nice restaurant and had the rehearsal dinner where I won the over-under bet on the number of toasts (total coincidence the toast I made gave me the win - yeah, coincidence that's the ticket). (I also won the over - under for the wedding night, not that I'm competitive or anything).
Up to this point both in Boston and on the cape the weather had been really nice. So the day of the wedding it starts raining. A school bus picked us all up and drove us around for the wedding pictures. There was a spot on the beach with a covered area so we took pictures there for a while. Then the rain stopped for a bit so we headed out to the beach for some pictures. When we got back a group of us were given the assignment to greet people arriving and the assignment to empty beer cans to string to the back of the bus. This turned out to be an interesting combination.
The wedding itself was very nice. The party afterwards was a great time. Some good Russian food and a handle of vodka on every table makes for a good time. I think that was the first time I took part in the chair raising for the horah. I was quite surprised both how easy it was at first and how hard it was by the end of the song.
The next morning after the group breakfast Max and Alice gave me a ride back to the city where I took a little walk through the Commons and headed to China Town for lunch before heading off to the airport. Thanks Julie and Saeed for the ride back from the airport.
Overall a very good time! Congratulations Mike and Laura!
While I was in Boston I stayed at Alice's place (thanks Max and Alice). Short tangent: I was reading this daily beast article where they rank the smartest cities in America. Boston came in number 3 and one of the comments about the city is "When you go into somebody’s office or you go into their home, one of the things you case out is their bookshelf" and the room I stayed in contains a bookshelf I am declaring the winner.
Thursday I was still adjusting to the time zone and got up rather late. After some lunch at the miracle of science and an unfruitful search for a glass for Mike to step on we headed out for the bachelor party. First stop was india quality. I'm so glad that in college we picked a restaurant that's actually really good so we can now do the combo of nostalgia and good food (nud pob and burrito max were good and all, but even if one of those was the Sunday post clean up place I couldn't see either being the aepi alumni meet up spot). (Yes I just explained that I'm glad that we liked a place I like).
After IQ we headed to Fenway where we watched the Red Sox beat the Indians. Well really we watched the backs of the Sox beat the backs of the Indians, but at least we were close to the field. Then off to Jillian's for some pool playing.
Friday after I took a little nostalgia walk through MIT while reading the Tech, Jeremy, Emily and I made our way down to the cape (and found a good glass for stepping on). We hung out at Laura's place and did the rehearsal. Afterwards we headed to a nice restaurant and had the rehearsal dinner where I won the over-under bet on the number of toasts (total coincidence the toast I made gave me the win - yeah, coincidence that's the ticket). (I also won the over - under for the wedding night, not that I'm competitive or anything).
Up to this point both in Boston and on the cape the weather had been really nice. So the day of the wedding it starts raining. A school bus picked us all up and drove us around for the wedding pictures. There was a spot on the beach with a covered area so we took pictures there for a while. Then the rain stopped for a bit so we headed out to the beach for some pictures. When we got back a group of us were given the assignment to greet people arriving and the assignment to empty beer cans to string to the back of the bus. This turned out to be an interesting combination.
The wedding itself was very nice. The party afterwards was a great time. Some good Russian food and a handle of vodka on every table makes for a good time. I think that was the first time I took part in the chair raising for the horah. I was quite surprised both how easy it was at first and how hard it was by the end of the song.
The next morning after the group breakfast Max and Alice gave me a ride back to the city where I took a little walk through the Commons and headed to China Town for lunch before heading off to the airport. Thanks Julie and Saeed for the ride back from the airport.
Overall a very good time! Congratulations Mike and Laura!
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